Appendix 6II, Description of the four scenarios

Description of the four scenarios

The assignment refers to four scenarios for future spatial developments, taken from the 'Welfare, prosperity and quality of the living environment' (WLO) scenario study (CPB et al., 2006). They provide a coherent framework for studying the distinguished developments and are ordered following two opposing trends:

• global (1) vs. regional (2); and
• market economy (A) vs. cooperation (B).

The four resulting scenarios are depicted below:

Global Economy combines globalisation with individualism, whereas Regional Communities connect regionalism with cooperation. In the A-type scenarios, people tend to focus more on material values, whereas, in the B-type scenarios, they focus on immaterial values. Likewise, in a 1-type world cultural and economic globalisation is an important trend whereas in a 2-type world, the opposite is the case. Each combination of trends (i.e. scenario) has specific characteristics, which are summarised below.

A1: The ‘Global Economy scenario assumes continuing globalisation and liberalisation, resulting in high economic growth and a fast introduction of new technologies. In this capitalized, market-oriented and individualistic world civilians are strongly focussed on the material aspects of life. The welfare state crumbles off. A2: In the ‘Transatlantic Market’ scenario the traditional bands between Western Europe and the United States are re-enforced and a strong cultural and trade block emerges. The differences between the Western world and other (less wealthy) regions increase. Traditions are important in this world, which shows itself in a society oriented towards self-sufficiency, an industry aimed at ‘improving the existing’ instead of radical changes and civilians aimed at family values, status and comfort. B1: In the ‘Strong Europe’ scenario globalisation continues, not only aimed at removing trade barriers but also at the exchange of knowledge and technologies between industrialised and developing countries. There is a general concern for the division of wealth and raw materials between people and for the management of nature and the environment. Solidarity shows itself in the form of a strong welfare state. B2: The ‘Regional Communities scenario assumes an emphasis on the own identity and self-sufficiency within a region. Global developments are not a general concern and receive less attention. People are less materialistic and more focussed on the quality of their living environment. Solidarity is important and the national government plays an important role in the division of wealth and the protection of collective interests. This appendix also contains the basic assumptions and related spatial implications for the four scenarios.

The scenarios are included in the land-use model in two ways:

1. They set regional or national land-use claims, by predicting a future surface area for every land-use type; and
2. They influence the relative importance of the factors that describe suitability.

The table below contains the expected total surface area of each land-use type for the four scenarios. These are included in the model version that will be used for the assignment. The figures in this table are derived from different sector-specific models and are based on the trends and assumptions for each scenario. As can be seen from the claim table, three of the four scenarios have a total land-use demand that is greater than the current land use, indicating over-demand. We solve this problem in our model by taking additional land from agriculture assuming that this function will be the weakest (least spending power) in the competition for space.

A more extensive description of the related basic assumptions and spatial implications is listed in the large table on the following page.

Land-use type	A1 (GE)	A2 (TM)	B1 (SE)	B2 (RC)	Current land use (2010)
Residential	362963	318748	321098	278558	273110
Industrial	116087	96556	93161	73778	87470
Recreation	142504	115438	124934	106245	98829
Agriculture	2026500	2134310	2081980	2136390	2264360
Nature	599113	582113	624112	607113	486551
Building lot	39	39	1919	40977	36882
Infrastructure	121461	121461	121461	121461	121461
Water	785629	785629	785629	785629	785629
Exterior	-	-	-	-	-
Total demand	4154296	4154294	4154294	4150151	4154292

Expected land use (hectares) in 2040 following the four scenarios, compared to the current situation (2010), source: WLO (2006), adapted by SPINlab - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Basic assumptions and related spatial implications for the scenarios

	Global Economy A1_GE	Transatlantic Market A2_TM	Strong Europe B1_SE	Regional Communities B2_RC
Socio-economic conditions
Economic growth	Highest	High	Medium	Low
Population (2040)	20 million	17 million	19 million	16 million
Societal focus	Individual freedom	Individual freedom	Global cooperation	Regional cooperation
Recreation	Not much spare time, emphasis on active leisure, accessibility and proximity to residential areas are important	More spare time than in A1 and B1, emphasis is on rest & relaxation	Valuable (more than in A1), people also like to go into nature areas, but some nature areas are restricted. Accessibility by road and by rail are important	Valuable, people also like to go into nature areas
General and sector-specific spatial policy
Economic orientation	Free market prevails, globalisation	Free market prevails, protectionism	Government intervenes, strong international institutions	Government intervenes, strong local and regional institutions
Spatial policy	Less restrictive policies	Less restrictive policies	Restrictive policies for rural areas	Restrictive policies for rural areas
Agricultural policy	Free world markets for agricultural products	Internal EU support under conditions, no export subsidies	Regulated world markets for agricultural products	Internal EU support under conditions, no export subsidies
Nature protection & development	Only the most valuable natural areas are protected. International treaties are followed. Acquisition through private persons and organisations	Symbolic role of the government, general trend: nature serves humanity. International treaties are followed. Nature appears where agricultural land disappears. Nature is pushed aside by urbanisation processes	Global environmental policy, strong international institutions. International treaties are followed and acquired by national government following Ecological main structure (EHS)	Larger areas protected, Ecological main structure realised. International treaties are followed and acquired by national government following Ecological main structure (EHS)
Agriculture and nature conservation	Strong decline of agricultural land use. No chances for agriculture combined with natural values	Agricultural land use remains the same or decreases slightly. No chances for agriculture combined with natural values	Agricultural land use remains the same or decreases slightly. Room for agricultural nature management	Decline of agricultural land use follows the historic trend. Diversified rural development, much room for agricultural nature management
Water management	Building near rivers is allowed	Building near rivers is allowed reluctantly	Restrictions on urbanisation in designated areas	Restrictions on urbanisation in designated areas
Expected spatial developments
Urbanisation	Urban sprawl in rural areas. Accessibility by road to and from urban areas is important. Attractive surroundings are important for residences.	Urban sprawl in rural areas. Accessibility by road to and from urban areas is very important. Proximity to an airport is important. Attractiveness of the surroundings is not important	Concentration near existing urban areas, no new residential areas near airports	Concentration near existing urban areas, no new residential areas near airports and in low-lying rural areas
Commercial functions	Abundant growth, preference for highway locations	High growth, strong preference for highway locations	Medium growth, public transport accessibility promoted, also preference for highway locations	Limited growth, public transport accessibility strongly promoted

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