6b: Land‐use allocation exercise

learning objective: land-use exercise

Modelling the future of the Netherlands

Now that you are familiar with the model, it is time to bring this knowledge into practice. You are provided with a fully functional copy of the Land Use Scanner that already contains a basic reference to four socio-economic scenarios (see Appendix II for a description). Scenario-specific land-use claims have been added to the model, and all available spatial datasets are included in the suitability maps. No weights have been added to these maps, however. The land-use claims and suitability maps are combined in the allocation module, and results are available from the Simulations container.

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Assignment 1. Exploring suitability factors

To generate maps related to Dutch land use in 2040 in a specific scenario, we request you do the following:

1. Discuss within your group what suitability factors are important to you. How should the country look in the future? What factors could play a role? Does it have a positive or negative effect on the suitability?
2. The next step is adjusting the suitability maps for all land-use types in your scenario. You can do this by changing the appropriate values in the scenario script (e.g. A1.dms) in the text editor. As a start, you can use the values you agreed upon in the previous step. Keep in mind that the total suitability value of a land-use type reflects the net benefits of a certain location for that specific land-use type. This should provide a rationale (as well as limits) for your range of suitability values. Keep the range between -20 and +40. Finally, save the script and re-start Land Use Scanner.
3. Look at the resulting suitability maps per land-use function and discuss whether these are coherent with your initial thoughts on the scenario. Results can be analysed by comparing saved bitmaps and statistics of the situation before and after you change the script.
4. Simulate future land use by running the appropriate simulation (e.g. Simulations > A1_GE). Check the resulting maps on consistency with the storylines of the scenario, e.g. by making maps that depict dominant land use and the changes from current land use. Discuss which adjustments are needed.
5. Adjust the suitability maps and rerun the model until the results correspond with your views on the scenario.
6. Summarize the results by making characteristic maps of future land use. Make use of the possibilities for creating evaluation maps that describe dominant land use, the changes compared to the current situation and impacts on natural areas and landscape values. You can export maps by right-clicking a layer to, for example, ArcGIS to create more elaborate impact assessments and/or more refined maps.

Assignment 2. Adjusting claims

Now that you understand the impact of suitability factors, it is time to look into the effect of regional demand (or claims) on the outcome. The claims are defined per claim region (Randstand, intermediate zone, and peripheral zone) per land-use type in a .csv-file (i.e. ...\lus_demo\data\Scenarioclaims\Residential_rstintper.csv) and looks like this:

RstIntPer	Regio	A1	A2	B1	B2
0	Exterior	0	0	0	0
1	Randstad	39481.46516	26902.14096	20722.64149	5381.116004
2	Intermediate zone	25409.43429	17430.2063	11185.06832	5048.757996
3	Peripheral zone	16016.07455	11109.5091	7134.264191	0

1. Save the predominant land-use map to, for example, a Word document. Then, change the claim for a region for a scenario and run again. What are the impacts?

Assignment 3. Adding an additional suitability factor

Now that you understand the interplay of suitability and regional demand, we can think more in terms of policy analysis. An increasingly important factor in residential development in the Netherlands is climate adaptation. So, to investigate the impact of a policy measure, such as not building on too wet, too weak, or too subsidence-prone soils. Or building in flood-prone areas.

1. First, add a few new grid layers called TooWetSoil.tif, TooWeakSoil.tif, TooSubsidenceProneSoil.tif, and TooMuchFloodDanger.tif, which are located in ...\lus_demo\data\Current_situation\Thematic_maps\Water, and add them to /Current_Situation/Thematic_maps/Water. What value type are these layers? How can you discern that?
2. Now how to use this data set? Of course, add it to the suitability factors (e.g. /Scenario_Components/Local_Suitability/A1_GE/residential). What value should you give this?
3. Now, determine the impact of this policy measure. Hint: look here /Simulations/A1_GE/Results/Continuous/Evaluation/Floodrisk/Result/LU_Damage.

Assignment 4. Add your own additional suitability factor

Maybe you can think of other suitability factors that might be relevant. Find a dataset, maybe manipulate it, and add it. For example, maybe add a distance map to a buffered road network.

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Go to previous module: 6a: Getting started

Go to next page: Appendix 6I, Land Use Scanner Background