2024 US Presidential Election Forecasting

Overview

This repository contains the data, code, and analysis of a 2024 U.S. presidential election forecast. The polling data was sourced from the 2024 National Presidential General Election Polls

File Structure

The repository is organized as follows:

• data/raw_data: contains the raw data as obtained from FiveThirtyEight, including the simulated data
• data/analysis_data: Contains the cleaned data used for analysis and modeling.
• models: Contains the fitted models, including saved models in .rds format.
• other: Documents any assistance from ChatGPT-4o and preliminary sketches.
• paper: contains the files used to generate the paper, including the Quarto document and reference bibliography file, as well as the PDF of the paper.
• scripts: Contains the R scripts used to simulate, download, clean, test, analyze and model the data.

Statement on LLM usage

Aspects of the code were written with the help of the ChatGPT-4o, including graphing and some conceptual assistance. It is available in other/llm_usage.