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FIFTY-YEARS-LATER

五十年之间会有怎样的变化?

# What will change in fifty years?

刚刚看见新闻说油价将要调价,每50升大约便宜二十多元,原因是有:

# I just saw the news that the oil price will be adjusted, and every 50 liters is about 20 yuan cheaper. The reasons are as follows:

本轮调价周期内,国际油价大幅下滑主要受两方面因素影响。一是大规模原油储备投放,供应紧张程度预期有所缓解。美国宣布未来六个月将向市场投放1.8亿桶原油储备,约每天释放100万桶,是史上最大规模;国际能源署其他成员国也计划投放6000万桶石油储备,市场上将有合计2.4亿桶的石油储备投放。二是在俄乌战事和新冠疫情影响下,经济增长和用油需求预期下滑。世界贸易组织对2022年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%;国际能源署继续下调全球石油需求预期至9940万桶/日。需求下滑导致原油库存回升,最新一期美国商业原油库存升至4.2亿桶上方。具体来看,目前伦敦布伦特、纽约WTI油价分别位于每桶110美元和107美元左右的水平,较上一调价周期分别下降8.19%、8.20%。

# During this round of price adjustment cycle, the sharp decline in international oil prices was mainly affected by two factors. First, large-scale crude oil reserves have been released, and the supply tension is expected to ease. The United States announced that it will release 180 million barrels of crude oil reserves into the market in the next six months, about 1 million barrels per day, which is the largest in history; other members of the International Energy Agency also plan to release 60 million barrels of oil reserves, and there will be a total of 240 million barrels in the market. Barrels of oil reserves are released. Second, under the influence of the war in Russia and Ukraine and the new crown epidemic, economic growth and oil demand are expected to decline. The World Trade Organization lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 2.8%; the International Energy Agency continued to lower its forecast for global oil demand to 99.4 million barrels per day. The drop in demand led to a recovery in crude inventories, with the latest U.S. commercial crude stockpiles rising above 420 million barrels. Specifically, London Brent and New York WTI oil prices are currently around $110 and $107 per barrel, respectively, down 8.19% and 8.20% from the previous price adjustment cycle.

出于好奇,去了解了一下原油是如何形成的,这也是个很有趣的事情,了解之后突发奇想,五十年后会怎样。

# Out of curiosity, I went to understand how crude oil was formed. This is also a very interesting thing. After I understand it, I have a whim, what will happen in 50 years?

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